Alberta population projected to surpass B.C. by 2050: Stats Canada

Within the next 24 years, Alberta could become Canada’s third-largest province by population.

Statistics Canada has released its latest set of population projections, offering low, medium, and high-growth scenarios.

“Population projections are not predictions. They offer several possible scenarios for future developments, based on recent trends and possible but uncertain future developments,” says Statistics Canada. “They thus provide decision-makers and planners with an essential tool for anticipating the future.”

They say the country could be home to more than 48.6 million people by 2050 under the medium-growth scenario, which is generally considered to be the most likely outcome. That would be an increase of about 16.5 per cent from the 41.7 residents we had on July 1, 2025.

However, they forecast that the population could be anywhere between 43.3 million (+3.8%) and 55.1 million (+33.1%) by that time.

Ontario and Quebec would remain the biggest provinces, and all projections have Alberta overtaking British Columbia to become the third-largest province by population.

Alberta had an estimated 5,029,346 residents as of July 1, 2025.

That could increase to as much as 8,132,600 (+61.7%) by 2050 under the high-growth scenario, 7,220,100 (+43.6%) with medium-growth, or 6,458,700 (+28.4%) under the minimal-growth scenario.

B.C.’s population as of July 2025 was approximately 5.7 million. It is projected to have anywhere between 5.82 million and 7.53 million people by the half-millennium.

Alberta experienced record-breaking population growth in the first half of the 2020’s, at times seeing more than 60,000 additional residents in a single quarter.

Things have started to slow down more recently, with the second quarter of 2025 having Alberta’s smallest population gains in about three years.

You can use the interactive tables for Canada’s population estimates on Statistics Canada’s website.

Population projections for Canadian provinces for 2050 under a high-growth scenario. (Image Credit: Statistics Canada / Pattison Media)

Population projections for Canadian provinces for 2050 under a medium-growth scenario. (Image Credit: Statistics Canada / Pattison Media)

Population projections for Canadian provinces for 2050 under a low-growth scenario. (Image Credit: Statistics Canada / Pattison Media)

Population projections for Alberta by 2050, and Alberta’s population as of July 1, 2025. (Image Credit: Statistics Canada / Pattison Media)